Shortages

Joint with Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello

Abstract: This paper introduces a monthly shortage index for the United States from 1900 to 2023, constructed using a sample of 25 million newspaper articles. The index measures the intensity of shortages of labor, materials, goods, and energy by calculating the proportion of articles discussing shortages each month. The resulting index reveals significant variation in shortage intensity over time, with notable peaks during periods of economic turmoil and wars. We explore the relationship between the shortage index and key economic indicators, discussing potential applications for researchers, policymakers, and businesses. Increases in shortages that are orthogonal to standard demand, supply and commodity price shocks generate persistent inflationary effects.

Trade Fragmentation

Joint with Justin Pierce

Coverage: centralbanking.com

This FEDS Note finds evidence of "fragmentation" in US-China trade; less so for other countries. Advanced technology products and tariffs each play a role.

Head Start

I take advantage of the many quasi-experimental studies of Head Start's effectiveness to estimate the marginal value of public funds (MVPF), which measures the "bang for the buck" of a government program.